Why Donald Trump's message keeps resonating
However unpopular the former president may be outside his die-hard fan base, his "America First" message continues to score points, argues guest author Néckel Polfer.
After the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, it borders on a miracle (or a nightmare, depending on one's point of view) that Donald Trump is once again a contender for the American presidency. By now, though, it would be more of a miracle if Trump were not re-elected — and with a large majority in the Electoral College at that. How did this come about?
The fact that President Joe Biden is by now even less popular than Trump must be chalked up to the poor record of his term in office. After the chaotic Trump years, Biden's so-called "A-Team" actually wanted to prove that the "adults" were back in charge. But persistent inflation, unchecked illegal immigration, and the dangerous international situation convey the impression of a very weak president, who on top of that shows signs of dementia.
The argument that the world faces collapse if Trump is elected won't work this time — because the world is already teetering on the edge of the abyss anyway. Moreover, one should distinguish Trump's character traits — impulsive, unpredictable, narcissistic, and insufferable — from his policies. His "America First" policy remains popular because it is far more rational, and more in the self-interest of many Americans, than his opponents are willing to admit.
America's social problems
After Hillary Clinton's election loss to Trump in 2016, Democratic strategists had already drawn lessons from that defeat once before. Trump's message to the "forgotten" middle class had undoubtedly struck a nerve. Ever since the Reagan Revolution in the eighties, the income gap has kept widening. While middle-class incomes stagnate, the incomes of the elites keep setting one record after another. The reasons for this are manifold, but free world trade and high immigration play an important role, particularly in depressing lower incomes.
Anyone who has lived in America knows how unequally wealth is distributed there. America is not a rich country, but rather a country in which a few rich people live. There is no social safety net such as exists in Europe. A large part of the population therefore lives in permanent danger of falling into poverty if they lose their job. The lower class has hardly any chance of working its way up. Schools in poor neighborhoods are often disastrous, drug use and crime are ubiquitous. Even the wealthy worry, because tuition and health insurance keep getting more expensive, and private retirement savings may not be enough.
Biden's failed policy
The main reason for Biden's disastrous approval ratings is found in his immigration policy. The number of illegal immigrants apprehended by border police each year has reached an all-time high of two million. The true figure is considerably higher — it is estimated that the number of illegal immigrants roughly doubled in three years, from ten to 20 million.
Even in Democratic-run cities, there is resistance to this influx. The costs for housing, food, health care, and schools are blowing up local budgets. This problem was ignored for too long. Another problem is high inflation. This is fueled by massive government spending (ironically financed through the "Inflation Reduction Act" and through very high deficits), the sanctions war against Russia, and protectionist trade policy.
In foreign policy, Biden has committed himself to internationalism. In the war in Ukraine, his team initially handled things skillfully, assembling as broad a coalition against Putin as possible. But Russia was underestimated, and the tide has turned in Putin's favor. After two years, there is no "endgame" and no prospect whatsoever of peace. Meanwhile, new flashpoints have emerged in the Middle East. China, for its part, is working to dominate the Chinese Sea, and there is talk of subjugating Taiwan. The Biden administration's strategy seems to be to make as many enemies as possible, without actually deterring any of them.
The appeal of the "America First" policy
The social inequalities that have built up over decades were enabled by both parties. As a political newcomer, Trump was able to break several taboos within the Republican Party all at once: the commitment to Reagan's neoliberal economic policy and to George W. Bush's interventionist foreign policy.
His America First policy puts America's economic interests front and center above all else. Protectionist measures are meant to shield American industry from foreign competition. Illegal immigration is to be stopped with a wall along the border with Mexico. Under Trump, the USA will further expand its position as the largest oil and gas producer; this will make America even more energy-independent, create jobs, and lead to lower energy prices.
In foreign policy, the America First approach aims for the USA to defend its own interests rather than continuing to play world policeman. The majority of Americans wish for their government to focus primarily on problems at home, rather than getting involved in the affairs of other countries. Wealthy allies in Europe and Asia are supposed to pay for their own defense themselves. Nevertheless, Trump continues to rely on a strong military, meant above all to deter China from dominating Asia, or indeed the world.
Trump's policy is therefore quite coherent in its aim of safeguarding America's national interests. Given the social problems in America, it is thus not irrational for voters to vote for him out of self-interest. The messenger Trump is loved by few — but his message is.
* The author is an alderman ("Schöffe") in the municipality of Weiswampach and lived and worked in the USA from 2007 to 2018.